Is coffee becoming a luxury product? Extreme heat staggers plantations worldwide

©Nathan Dumlao via Unsplash

Every morning, millions of people worldwide start their day with a cup of coffee. A seemingly mundane routine, behind which, however, lies an increasingly fragile chain. For behind the hot or cold drink is an economic ecosystem that runs on a large number of small farmers spread across a narrow tropical belt around the earth. And that system is cracking under the strain of increasing heat...

A new analysis by Climate Central shows just how heavily climate change is already weighing on global coffee production. Researchers compared daily temperatures from 2021-2025 in 25 producing countries - together accounting for some 97% of global supply - with the temperatures that would have been there without carbon pollution.

The results are troubling: all 25 countries analyzed experienced more days above 30°C, the limit above which coffee bush growth is severely affected. The world's five largest producers - Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia, together account for 75 percent of all coffee - faced an average of 57 additional days per year with damaging heat, due solely to climate crisis.

Why heat is so dangerous for coffee

Coffee plants are very fragile and have been adapted to very specific climatic conditions through centuries of evolution. The Arabica variety, which represents 60-70% of world production and is most prized for its taste, already begins to suffer at temperatures around 25°C. Above 30°C, the plant suffers severe damage: flowering declines, berries develop poorly and the plant becomes more susceptible to pests and diseases.

Robusta, which can withstand heat better, also has its limit. At temperatures constantly above 30°C, even this variety no longer grows optimally. In fact, no commercial variety emerges unscathed from increasingly frequent and longer heat waves.

The hardest-hit countries

Brazil - the world's largest producer with 37% of global supply - recorded 70 additional days per year of damaging heat compared to a no-emissions scenario. In Minas Gerais state alone, the beating heart of Brazilian coffee production, 67 such days were added.

Indonesia, accounting for 6% of world production, is among the major producers the country with the relatively strongest increase: 73 additional days. This is followed by Vietnam (+59), Colombia (+48) and Ethiopia (+34). Looking at all 25 countries combined, the sad record goes to El Salvador, with a whopping 99 extra days above the critical threshold.

Rising prices

It's no coincidence that coffee prices reached record levels in December 2024 and again in February 2025. According to the World Bank, quotations for arabica and robusta nearly doubled between 2023 and 2025. Extreme weather in key growing regions is at least partially responsible for this price explosion: drought, heat waves and irregular rainfall are depressing yields and put pressure on the entire supply chain.

It's mainly small farmers who suffer. They produce 60-80% of all coffee worldwide, but received only 0.36% of global climate adaptation funds by 2021. For these families, who often grow their coffee on less than five acres, coffee is not a choice but the only source of income.

In Ethiopia - the historic homeland of coffee, where more than 4 million families depend on the crop - small producer cooperatives are already looking for solutions. The Union of Coffee Growers Cooperatives of Oromia (OCFCU) has distributed low-emission stoves to its members to reduce pressure on forests, which serve as natural shade refuges for arabica plants. But without adequate funding, local solutions are not enough.

What is possible

Researchers point to some strategies that can be implemented with minor modifications. Growing coffee under the shade of taller native trees reduces exposure to direct heat and provides additional ecological benefits: it enriches the soil, protects biodiversity and creates habitats for birds. It's not the most profitable option in the short term - plantations in full sun yield more - but it's the most resilient.

In the long run, the coffee region map could shift: some areas that are already too hot become unproductive, while higher elevation regions that were previously unsuitable may become suitable for cultivation. But this scenario, in addition to the risk of further deforestation, in no way guarantees a smooth transition for people whose roots are already deep in increasingly hot soil.

The structural solution, scientists and growers agree, is only one: reduce CO₂ emissions. Every cup of coffee we drink is somehow linked to the amount of carbon we put into the atmosphere.
 

(GreenMe.it 2026/Managing Editor: Selma Keshkire - The Press Junction/Picture: ©Jonas Leupe via Unsplash)