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You and I probably wouldn't immediately think of it and probably associate gambling mainly with sports games. Yet a number of people bet big, and also won money on the assassination of Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This is what Reuters and Bloomberg are reporting.
In recent days, mysterious gamblers have bet up to 485 million euros to predict when the bombs will fall on Iran. They also bet on the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
On the controversial Polymarket website in particular, mysterious gamblers have won millions by guessing the date of the Israeli-American attack on Iran and the fate of Ayatollah. Those who had bet on Saturday as the start date of the bombings were able to pass the digital cash register last weekend. But this of course raises ethical questions.
What's for more, Bloomberg reports that it seems that insider trading is at times carried out by gamblers. Indeed, blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps reports that six specific accounts recorded a combined profit of $1.2 million. It's worth noting that these accounts were only fed in the hours leading up to Saturday's attacks, as if they knew what was coming.
The Polysights analysis platform has also noticed suspicious behavior. As early as January, the platform noticed a surge in activity on the part of new digital wallets, which, with no track record, suddenly bet on the "Khamenei gone before the end of March" scenario.
Polymarket has yet to react officially. Its American competitor Kalshi, which unlike Polymarket is controlled by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, has already decided to refund all bets on Khamenei's death and to reimburse costs, for ethical reasons.
(©Selma Keshkire with Benjamin Sluis - The Press Junction /Picture: ©Vony Razom via Unsplash)