Saudi Arabia is trying to stay out of Trump’s war—but is being drawn deeper and deeper into the regional conflict.
Saudi Arabia is determined to stay out of the war between the U.S. and Iran, but is nonetheless being drawn into the escalation step by step. After months of primarily enduring Iranian attacks, the kingdom chose to launch its own attack for the first time this week: Saudi and U.S. fighter jets carried out joint airstrikes against pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. This marks the first time a third country has become actively involved in a conflict that has been raging for five months.
Riyadh faces a major dilemma: whether to strike back even harder as a deterrent, or to try to de-escalate the situation, possibly by offering financial compensation to some of its opponents. Meanwhile, the front lines are clear. On one side are Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), with the Houthis in Yemen, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, and—to a lesser extent—Hezbollah in Lebanon as allies. On the other side are the U.S., with CENTCOM at its core, and—to varying degrees—the Gulf states and Jordan. Israel is a close ally of Washington but is not currently an active party in this round.
For Saudi Arabia, getting involved is risky. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is fully committed to “Vision 2030”: a modern, diversified country that is less dependent on oil. That plan won’t work if critical infrastructure—such as data centers and oil facilities—is constantly under attack. The attack on Abqaiq and Khurais in September 2019, which temporarily crippled half of Saudi oil exports, came as a shock. Earlier this week, satellite images again showed drone damage in Abqaiq, which analysts say was launched by Iranian proxies in Iraq.
Oil exports themselves are also under pressure. Following the U.S. and Israeli attacks in February, Iran largely closed off the Strait of Hormuz; since then, Saudi Arabia has been pumping up to five million barrels per day via an east-west pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea. But Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea and on regional airports such as Abha and Jizan are making that route more dangerous. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial bottleneck for exports to Asia, is increasingly becoming a chokepoint.
Riyadh tried for seven years to defeat the Houthis militarily—without success. Since 2022, an uneasy ceasefire has been in place, with rumors of financial arrangements. Now the kingdom is once again coming under fire, from both Yemen and Iraq. None of this was part of the original plan for 2030.
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