EU population shrinks: Africa accounts for one-third of the world’s population in 2010

© picture alliance / NurPhoto | Jakub Porzycki

In its third report on demographic change within the European Union, the European Commission warns that the EU population is set to shrink and age. At the same time, it emphasizes that this also presents opportunities if countries respond in a timely manner.

The biggest challenges lie in the labor market, healthcare, public finances, and regional inequality, while living longer and healthier lives also creates new opportunities for innovation and economic growth.

“Europe’s population is changing, and European policy must adapt accordingly. We are living longer and healthier lives than ever before—one of our greatest achievements,” said Commissioner Dubravka Šuica during the presentation of the report. “But demographic changes are reshaping our societies, our economies, and our labor markets, and we must take action now to turn this transformation into an opportunity.”

"This report provides the data needed to help Member States prepare for the future. Demographics are no longer an isolated issue: they must be part of every major policy decision. By investing in skills, care, talent, productivity, and regional cohesion, we can strengthen Europe’s competitiveness, resilience, and well-being for the coming decades.”

The EU currently has a population of approximately 450.6 million, but that number is expected to decline to about 445 million by 2050 and 398.8 million by 2100. At the same time, life expectancy is rising: in 2024, it stood at 81.5 years, and by 2050, nearly one-third of the EU population will be 65 or older.

According to the report, this demographic shift is leading to labor shortages and increased pressure on healthcare and pension systems. There are also still large underutilized groups in the labor market, such as women, young people not in education or employment, and older workers who can remain active longer.

The Commission sees a focus on skills, healthcare, housing, regional development, and productivity as key to mitigating the consequences. Targeted labor migration can also help reduce shortages, although retraining people within the EU itself remains the priority.

The EU’s share of the world’s population will decline from 5.4 percent today to 3.4 percent in 2100. China’s share will also fall sharply: from 17.2 percent to 6.2 percent by the end of this century. India and the United States will remain relatively stable. Africa’s share of the world’s population will grow to 37.6 percent.

Picture: © picture alliance / NurPhoto | Jakub Porzycki